Threats Of Lake Nyos Dam Catastrophe: Why The Silence?

By Hans Mokenge & John Forbah Taku, Sdertorn University/College- Sweden

Two years have passed since the UN issued a warning calling for urgent actions to prevent the collapse of the Lake Nyos natural dam.

There has been little response from the government and the international community despite the urgent call made by UN experts.A report on this field study released in October 2005 by the United Nations Environmental Programme, UNEP, and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, OCHA, warns that the collapse is "imminent" and could occur within five to ten years.

Scientific warnings of a possible Lake Nyos Dam failure dates back to 1988 when scientists observed that the natural dam bordering the northern section of the lake is eroding with the passing of time.

The natural dam consists of poorly consolidated pyroclastic deposits; it is 43 metres high, 50 metres wide and 200 metres wide. Scientific findings indicate that there are already visible leakages on the dam. The natural dam could fail at any time, worse still a minor earthquake around the area or surface erosion caused by a wave of water from another massive gas release could provoke the inevitable collapse of the dam.

In 1986, over 1700 people died from asphyxiation due to massive release of carbon dioxide from Lake Nyos and several others were injured and displaced. An estimated 10,000 people in Cameroon and neighbouring Nigeria are at risk if the dam collapses. Despite the uncertainties associated with dam failures, scientists assume two devastating consequences in case the Lake Nyos Dam collapses.

The lake will rise by 38 metres, resulting in the release of 55 million cubic metres of water. This will flood parts of Cameroon and Nigeria. Secondly, the 2006 report of the Technical Project for the degassing of Lake Nyos and Monoun, NMDP, indicates that Lake Nyos still contains more gas than released in 1986. What this means is that a breach of the dam will release dissolved carbon dioxide from the lake waters.

While the government is yet to come up with a concrete solution for the Lake Nyos victims of 1986, another disaster puts us in doubts. In Nigeria, a sensitisation programme to prepare people within the risk zone physically and psychologically was launched by the National Emergency Management Agency, NEMA, in 2005 after publication of the UN report on Lake Nyos Dam Assessment.

In 2006, the former President of Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo, hosted a meeting of governors of neighbouring and border states to Cameroon on this issue. The result was an Environmental Impact Assessment, EIA, study on the possibility of a dam collapse and the mitigation measures.

An article from the Tide Newspaper (Nigeria) re-published by the United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP, News Centre concludes: "As the Cameroonian authorities appear relaxed over the next round of the disaster, it is the responsibility of the federal government to act promptly by putting measures in place to mitigate the effects of the impending disaster."

We lament with the fact that we are faced with a potential catastrophe yet hardly any concrete political commitment has been made by our leaders to avoid the catastrophe or minimise its impact. The UN report proposed a mitigation strategy, which could cost 15 million US dollars. However, such an approach is suicidal.

During the 15th Colloquium on African Geology held in Nancy, France, in September 1990, concern was raised on the mitigative strategies advanced for the natural dam hazard. Lowering the lake level was seen as very risky for it could provoke another massive gas release. George King further clarified this in 2006 after the publication of the UN report.

The upper water of Lake Nyos acts as a lid that prevents carbon dioxide from coming to the surface. The solution is for government to provide more pipes to speed up the degassing process. With the current pipes, the degassing process may be completed by 2015.

Worthy of note is the fact that Lake Monoun has been completely degassed. We should, however, bear in mind that the dam could fail at any time, thus it is necessary for the government to warn the threatened population and to establish an early warning system.
While the remnant of the Lake Nyos disaster lives with us on a daily basis, many Cameroonians are hardly aware of a greater catastrophe in the waiting.

This article is meant for those who are unaware of such danger. It is time to question the political commitment of our leaders on this issue. More so, we appeal to the scientific community in Cameroon. Prompt and proper political decisions are dependent on undisputable scientific data. The scientific community in Cameroon certainly have to work together to provide decision-makers with the answers they really need.

Comments

[Cameroonian]

The Lake Nyos Natural Dam poses a great risk (potential to cause harm) to a large number of people (1-10,000) in Cameroon and Nigeria. However, very few people in Cameroon are aware of this impending disaster. Scientific reports on this hazard are published in journals which are accessible to very few people in Cameroon. More so, the Government has remained silent on this hazard . As Cameroonian we need to know about this hazard and how the government is responding to it. The probability of its occurrence is uncertain, however the extent of damage if the dam were to collapse is also uncertain and this could be very high.
Some feasibility studies for a mitigative action on the dam have been carried out, notably the HSF 2001 Mission to the dam and the UNEP/OCHA Experts Mission in 2005.Their proposals raise the same questions that had been asked in Nancy 1990. Hence the government needs to increase the number of pipes for the degassing program in order to speed up the process. A safe and secure action on the Lake’s natural dam can only take place when Lake Nyos has been finally degassed.
Risks whose probability of occurrence and extent of damage are uncertain require Precautionary Risk Management Strategies, this demand the application of the precautionary principle. I agree with the authors of this article that the government has to establish an Early Warning System for this hazard. An emergency management committee guided by legislative and policy frameworks that support the implementation and maintenance of the early warning system is vital. More so, there is need for improved knowledge on the state of the natural dam. This demands the establishment of a scientific body to collect ,assess and share information on the natural dam. The people within the risk areas have to be informed of the hazard and trained to respond in a coordinated manner should the dam fail.
How long will the government continue to act irresponsibly towards the Nyos people. They are Cameroonians and deserve better treatment. Victims of the last disaster are stranded in camps. Some argue that the lack of political commitment is due to the fact that Lake Nyos is situated in the Anglophone section of Cameroon and English speaking Cameroonians are “expendable”. However I leave such debates for others with more insight on the topic.

[red flag]

what these dishonest illetrate intellectual

failed to know is that nyos through out its 5 billion years had never killed even a fly, not to talk of humans, its become poisonous only , when southern cameroons(english) where this lake is located became , aanexed by french cameroun, from 1961 till date.
by the way it was paul biya who killed our brothers/sisters through genocide (his hatred for us and his desire to completely wipe us from our land. that he cornived with the isrealis to test a neutron bomb at lake nyos, in return for 50 million dollars. which he was paid.

now you little pinheads students of sweden ,please do some independent research and quit playing in the hands of an african criminal-nazi state.

there is no such a country called ANGLOPHONE BUT THERE IS A COUNTRY CALLED BRITISH SOUTHERN CAMEROONS. THATS WHERE LAKE NYOS IS LOCATED.

[Ebonylad]

The findings are scientifically sensible and worthy of actions to be taken fast.Unfortunately,the lives of the people around the disaster area should be on a hanging bar not by their design but because they are governed by a sleeping government.

I would personally not be surprised if things turn worse in this disaster area because government actors make no use of knowledge in Cameroon.Everything is centred around patronism,power and witch hunting.

[red flag]

lake nyos events was a neutron bomb test
and not a natural disater as elaborated bt the POST WATCH MAGAZINE, RIGHT ON YOUR COMPUTER TOP RIGHT, IT WAS THE HANDIWORK OF MANS HATRED TO MAN, IN THIS CASE BLACK-FRENCH HATRED TOWARS THE 7M ENGLISH SPEAKING PEOPLE OF BRITISH SOUTHERN CAMEROONS BY 11 MILLION FRENCH CAMEROUNESE
AND THEIR UNELECTED RULER PAUL MBOYA.

[Mokenge/Taku]

We appreciate the comments received on this article. Scientist from the U.S.A, Japan, France, Britain, Italy and Cameroon investigated the actual cause of the disaster and published their findings in various scientific journals (http://www-personal.umich.edu/~gwk/research/nyos_pubs.htm). The experts agreed that carbon dioxide was the principal lethal gas released from the lake, and it was the cause of death on both man and animal. However, they disagreed on the volume of gas released, what may have triggered the gas release and the possibility of a future occurrence (Sigvaldason, G. E., J. of Volcan. & Geothermal R., 1989). One feedback mention the link at the top right of the page which we presume (http://www.dibussi.com/2006/08/the_lake_nyos_d.html#more ). What truly happened in Lake Nyos in 1986 is open to discussion and many questions are yet to be answered, but hard scientific evidence point to a natural event although a man induced disaster theory cannot be disregarded. An interactive discussion on the subject will certainly throw more light.
Our reaction to some of the feedback we have received on the article gives us an opportunity to add some information on the nature of the Lake Nyos natural dam threat. Lake Nyos contains an estimated 132.million m3of water, the natural dam is 43 meters high. If the dam were to collapse, the lake level will drop by 38 meters thus releasing 55 million m3of water. This will flood parts of Cameroon and Nigeria (Lockwood J.P et al. Bulletin of Volcanology. 1988).
Our article is a call for deliberation on an issue that politicians and public authorities in Cameroon seem to downplay. That is the Lake Nyos natural Dam. The Lake Nyos natural dam is a complex, uncertain and ambiguous challenge. This calls for deliberations on how to cope with the challenge. Such deliberations are of two folds. An “epistemological discourse” through which experts can argue with facts on the topic. Such a discourse took place in Yaounde in March 1987 when the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research organized a conference to find out the actual cause of the 1986 Lake Nyos disaster and precautionary actions to prevent future occurrence. After the publication of the UNEP/OCHA report on the natural dam (Full report http://ochaonline.un.org/OchaLinkClick.aspx?link=ocha&DocId=1003780), a Cameroon scientist denied that the Lake Nyos dam was about to collapse (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/Headlines/2005/200508.html). There is need for experts to gather and discuss this subject. This creates an opportunity to establish a consistent and homogenous explanation of the natural dam threat. This is very important especially when the time frame for the collapse is uncertain (Freeth S. J.& Lockwood, J.P 1988. When the Lake Nyos Dam fails there will be serious flooding in Cameroon and Nigeria- but when will it fail? Comment and Reply. Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys. Un. 69, 776-777) and no feasible mitigative strategy has been accepted.
Secondly, stakeholders and public interest groups have to be included in the deliberation. This calls for a “reflective discourse” on how much we are willing to accept the uncertainty associated with the natural dam for the future.
We are faced with a phenomenon which threatens about 10.000 lives. The 1986 Lake Nyos disaster could have been foreseen and precautionary measures applied if thorough investigation was carried out after the 1984 Lake Monoun disaster. There is a possibility to prevent a future disaster and the time to act is now.
Mokenge Hans and Forbah John T.

[red flag]

LAKE NYOS IS NOT A SECRET, NOR AN OPEN DISCUSSION.
TYPE ON TO POSTWATCH MAGAZINE AT THE TOP RIGHT OF THIS PAGE. AND YOU WILL LEARN THE REALITY ABOUT LAKE NYOS. THATS THE WORK OF PAUL MBIYA HATRED OF BRITISH SOUTHERN CAMEROONIANS AND HIS ISREALIS WHO TESTED A NEUTRON BOMB.

[red flag]

NOW TAKU ANY RESEARCH YOUR GROUP CARRY OUT
BY COLLABORATING WITH THE CULPRIT FRENCH CAMEROUN REGIME CANNOT BE TAKEN AS GENUINE.
FIRST YOU HAVE TO DISCOUNT WHAT IS WRITTEN IN THE OSTWATCH MAGAZINE, AND DO SOME INDEPENDENT INTERVIEW WITH THOSE NAMED IN THE PIECE AS WELL AS SURVIVING VICTIMS, THATS HOW ISSUES OF THIS MAGNITUDE AS DONE IS WESTERN COUNTRIES, NOT SOME PAID GROUPS FROM FRANCE, USA, , ETC WHO COLARBORATE WITH THE FRENCH CAMEROON REGIME THAT HAVE BEEN COLONIZING BRITISH SOUTHERN CAMEROONS FOR 46YEARS CAN SAYS ANY THING AND BE TAKEN SERIOUS
UNTILL YOU DISCOUNT WHAT WAS REPORTED BY CALIFORNIA NEWSPAPERS AND THE LOCALS THAT THEY SAW A SMALL AIRCRAFT FLEW OVER HEAD LOW ABOVE THE LAKE ,RIGHT BEFORE THE EXPLOSION , AND THE ISREALIS SCIENTIST WERE IMMEDIATELLY ON SITE, IN THE AFTER MATH, THEN THIS INVESTIGATIVE REPORT IS FAR IMPORT THAT ANY STUDY, PLUS THE LEAD SCIENTIST WAS BAR FRM SAYING WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED BY THE FRENCH-CAMEROUN REGIME.
JUST HOW CAN A LAKE THAT HAVE EXISTED FOR 5 BILLION YEARS, WITHOUT ANY INCIDENT
WHAT SOO EVER JUST WAKE UP ONE MORNING AND EXPLODES?
SCIENCE IS AN INTERPRETAIONAL STUDY. ANY SCIENTIST CAN SAY WHATEVER THEY WANT, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT CAMES TO FRANCE COLONIES, WHO ARE NOTORIUOS WORLDWIDE FOR THEIR CORRUPTION, TRIBALISM, NEPOTISM, RACISM, HUMAN RIGHT ABUSE, LYING AND DISHONESTY, CANNOT BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

[Mokenge/Taku]

In writing this article we have taken an objective stance and our primary purpose is to search for the truth. What ever hypothesis that we bring forth are testable and falsifiable. Lake Nyos to begin with is estimated to be between four hundred (Lockwood, J.P. and Rublin, M.: J. of Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 39, 117-124, 1989 and Darymple, G.B and Lockwood J.P. Natural Hazards 3:373-378, 1990) to a hundred thousand years old (Freeth S.J and Rex D.C.: J. of Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 97.261-269, 2000). We will be glad to read the scientific facts that put Lake Nyos at 5 billion years.
Secondly, oral history in this area refers to the lake as an evil lake. Why? That is a question open for interpretation (Evans W.C and Eby G. N.: Geology Today, Vol. 22, No 1, 2006). Furthermore, what happen to the fish life in Lake Nyos before the gas disaster (Freeth S.J.: Nature 329, 491-491, 1987)? There was no fish in Lake Nyos before the gas disaster. Strange, isn’t it? So what happened to the fish life in this lake before the 1986 disaster? There is need to know what really happened in Nyos in 1986. For the time being, we are yet to find concrete evidence to support the neutron bomb hypothesis.
Our emphasis is not on Lake Nyos gas disaster, it is on another disaster in the waiting. That is the “imminent” collapse of the Lake Nyos natural Dam. Certainly if politician and public authorities can deliberate on this issue, it will give us an opportunity to know more about Lake Nyos. Most especially the source of the lethal gas and what may have triggered its release in 1986.

[Ma Mary]

Surely there would have been isotopic evidence at the time, to put to bed this neutron bomb theory once and for all. The colonial occupier was only interested in looting the international aid sent to the victims and paid no attention to the conspiracy theories and their political ramifications.

I curse you evil colonizers!