By David Akana in Washington DC
Coming into the second Presidential debate ahead of the November 4, 2008 Presidential elections in the US, the Republican candidate, John McCain, who is currently trailing his Democratic opponent in the polls, needed to throw a knock out punch.
McCain needed a game changer to improve his standings in the polls. But did this happen? A CNN/Opinion Research Flash Poll of about 400 uncommitted voters published immediately after Tuesday's second Presidential debate indicated that Barack Obama won the debate by 54 to 30 percent for McCain. The same poll gave the Democratic flag bearer an edge in almost every issue at stake in the election.
On who can better manage the economy and the financial crisis currently facing the US, Obama led John McCain by double digits. Even on issues that have been known to be the strength of the Republican candidate such as who is better in managing the war on Iraq and Terrorism, Obama had an edge over McCain.
Another poll - the CBS poll of some 500 voters who watched the debate indicated that Obama did a better job by about 39 percent while McCain scored 27 percent. Focus group discussions of some uncommitted voters conducted by both left wing and right wing leaning cable television networks such as MSNBC and Fox News showed a similar trend in who did a better job in the debate last Tuesday night.
Like in the first Presidential elections, media pundits as well as campaigns continued to spin the outcome of the debate while claiming victory. But most pundits seem to agree that Obama won on both substance and style.The debate seemed to reinforce publicly held views about the temperaments of both candidates. McCain, the Obama campaign argued, is erratic while Obama is cool, steady and thoughtful.
Watching the 90-minute debate, nothing seems particularly new from any of the candidates except reiterating their differences on issues such as health care, getting America out of the economic crises, energy, Iran, the war in Iraq and how to handle North Korea.
Are Polls Reliable?
Immediately after the Republican National Convention at the beginning of September, John McCain was winning in almost every poll conducted in the US. Be it in left or right wing leaning polling organisation or independent polling agents, McCain had an edge over his Democratic opponent, Barack Obama. In addition to the momentum built from the convention, McCain's selection of the Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin, as his running mate was attributed to the surge in poll numbers.
But, since mid September, the course of the race has changed dramatically in favour of the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama. The economic and financial crisis currently facing the US seems to have fundamentally changed the direction of the race. Seven in every ten US voters now consider the economy as the number one issue that would determine their vote on November 4.
Among these groups, they trust Obama more to handle the economy. Maybe this is why the Democratic candidate has had a surge in polls since mid September. According the polls of polls which is an average of all national polls conducted both daily, bi weekly or weekly in the US, Obama leads by over five percent. A similar trend is discernible in almost all battleground States such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri, Colorado, Michigan, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa and New Hampshire.
Most analysts agree that if the current polls hold, Barack Obama, an African American man would be the next President of the United States of America.But should these polls be relied upon? Prominent pollsters of prominent polling organisations such Gallup argue that no candidate in US history has had such a lead in polls at this point in the Presidential race and not won the Presidency.
Race Turns Ugly
During the nomination process, both John McCain and Barack Obama promised to run a dignified campaign to the White House. Have both men lived up to expectation? With dwindling poll figures, the Republican Party candidate's campaign has adopted a new strategy against its opponent. McCain's running mate started last week by accusing Obama of associations with terrorists.
The strategy has been to raise doubts about Obama. McCain and his surrogates are trying to present Obama as a very risky and dangerous choice for Americans. By questioning his character, the candidate of the Republican Party seeks to create doubts about Obama. In a campaign rally in the State of New Mexico on Monday, McCain asked "Who is the real Barack Obama".
In response, the democratic candidate has accused McCain of swift boating him as it was done to the Democratic Candidate, John Kerry in 2004. Having learned the lessons of previous failures, the Democratic candidate has also started questioning McCain's associations with past scandals. They have accused Republicans of distracting American of fundamental concerns such as the economy which is hurting with petty issues.
The Politics of Economics
The United States of America is currently facing the worst economic and financial crisis it has ever faced since the great Depression of 1929. Unemployment rate is rising, jobs are being cut and its military burden in foreign wars is increasing. Over three quarter of Americans think that the country is now in a recession. The national mood is full of frustration and disappointment.
Much of the frustration is directed to President George Bush who has been in power for about eight years. Most Americans believe that the collapse of the economy is the result of poor policies of Bush's administration.
The economic mood in the US seems to have completely changed the state of the Presidential campaigns. While John McCain has fought to distance himself from his own party and President Bush, his opponent, Barack Obama has sought to tie him with the failed policies of Bush.
The Obama strategy seems to have succeeded as the elections now seem to be a referendum on the legacy of the past eight years of President Bush. With Bush attracting the least job favourability ratings in history only after Richard Nixon, the economic situation seems to be benefiting Obama.
Going Forward
In exactly four weeks, over 160 million Americans will be voting for a new President. Early voting has started in some States including the crucial State of Ohio. Should the current trend in polls and the frustrations about the national economy continue, Obama may be the next US President.
However, the race could still tilt McCain's way as there is still a third debate coming up on October 15. Also in 2004, a tape released by Osama Ben Ladin - the leader of the Al Qaeda fundamentally changed the momentum of the race towards Bush's way. It may still happen this year.
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