Dibussi Tande (Originally published on Scribbles from the Den)
On June 8, 2009, Omar Bongo Ondimba, Gabon’s 73-year old president, died after a record 43 years in office. Political observers keenly watched the political transition not merely because after close to half a century of Bongo’s iron rule, Gabon was moving into uncharted territory with the potential for instability but also because like in many other Francophone African countries, Gabon did not have a constitutional successor – a dauphin – to the President.
Ali-Ben Bongo of Gabon with Paul Biya (c) PRC
Among those watching the Gabonese situation closely were the ruling elite in neighboring Cameroon where 77-year President Biya was preparing for yet another seven-year presidential mandate in 2011, which would most likely eventually lead to a Gabonese-type situation in the country – the laws of nature being what they are, 77-year old Paul Biya has less, not more, time left at the helm of the state. He either dies in power just like Omar Bongo, or ends up a senile and pathetic figure like Habib Bourguiba of Tunisia or Houphouet Boigny of Cote d’Ivoire in their last days in power. Cameroon’s political elite therefore viewed the post-Omar Bongo transition process in Gabon as a testing board for the no-constitutional-successor political system which most constitutional scholars and political analysts believe would be “a definite recipe for acrimony, chaos and disaster down the road...” for Cameroon.
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The Cameroonian ruling elite were quite pleased with the relatively peaceful transition in Gabon which confirmed the continuity of the “système Bongo” and preserved the privileges and powers of members of the ancien regime who would have been swept away and even persecuted had anti-Bongo forces taken control of the transition process. The outcome of the Gabonese transition therefore comforted Cameroon’s ruling elite in their belief that the no-automatic-successor system of government remained the best option for Cameroon.
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Nonetheless, while the ruling elite in Cameroon may have reason to jubilate over the Gabonese transition, they are most likely drawing the wrong lessons from the said transition, and/or not paying enough attention to the actual details of that transition which reveal a number of disquieting issues that could be potentially destabilizing for Cameroon in the same circumstances. Let’s look at just three of these key issues.
Click here to read the complete article on Scribbles from the Den.
Cameroun is a very dangerous place with a history of incredible violence, whose causes have not been resolved. If care is not taken, THERE WILL BE BLOOD.
Posted by: Va Boy | Sunday, 07 March 2010 at 01:10 PM