2008 US Elections:Is Race An Obstacle For Obama?

By David Akana in Washington DC

Senator Barack Obama of Illinios is the first African-American to be nominated by a major political party to run for the presidential elections in the US.

Barack Hussein Obama's father was Kenyan while the mother who died several years ago was from the state of Kansas.At 47, Obama's political rise is considered one of the most unusual in US history. As most scholars of Presidential politics in the United States have said, his rise, is a story book.

When Obama launched his campaign in February 2007 in Springfield, Illinois, skeptics and cynics dismissed his candidacy arguing that he would fail as other past African-Americans who had attempted and failed in their bid for the White House, such as the Rev. Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988.

Two years after, Obama has defied the skeptics and is getting closer to the White House than any black candidate has ever done in the history of the US. While skeptics doubted his pedigree and potential, Obama beat some of the best candidates in the primaries such as Hillary Clinton, wife of the famous Bill Clinton.

Despite the historic achievement and many polls currently favoring Obama, many people still doubt if he will finally be elected US president on November 4, 2008. Perhaps, there is a genuine reason for such cynicism and doubts - Obama is a black.

Attempting to gauge voter's attitude towards the candidacy of Barack Obama, a CNN/Opinion Reseach Poll found that six percent of Americans would not vote for him because he is back. A higher number - nine percent of those polled said that there are more likely to vote for him because he is black. Meaning Obama is likely to have more people voting for him because he is black.

For supporters of Obama, these figures are comforting. But why do many continue to habour fear and cynicism about his ultimate success? The story dates back to 1982 when a black - Tom Bradley was running for Governor of California. Before the elections, Bradley like Obama was leading significantly in the polls.

When the elections took place, Bradley lost to his challenger. Since then, political scientists in the US established what they call the Bradley Effect. Every time a black candidate has run for elections, pollsters are careful about the sincerity of public opinion on the candidate.

Would there be a Bradley Effect on November 4? As some polls have found, there are people who would not vote for Obama because of his race, yet would lie to pollsters. These people are not necessarily whites - some blacks have even publicly announced that they would not vote for him because he is too inexperienced.

But, would this number be large enough to affect the outcome of the results? No one can say now.Obama's results in the primaries, his comfortable victories in predominantly white states such as Iowa, Virginia, Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington reflects how much racial emancipation has taken place in the US.

This might be the reason why Obama is doing exceptional well among youthful voters (18-30 years).  Most youths who didn't witness racial tensions of the 50s and 60s are less likely to vote on racial lines.

So while race remains an issue in voters' choice, it remains unclear how many people would vote on racial lines and to what percentage will it affect the results.

McCain's Running Mate Abused Power

Senator John McCain;s campaign has suffered immensely in polls recently because of the current economic crisis facing the US. Since the economic crisis started in mid September, the Republican nominee has slipped significantly in polls. In a bid to revive his candidacy and move the momentum his way, McCain's campaign started a series of coordinated attacks on Barcak Obama's character and sincerity.

But McCain's efforts suffered a severe setback last Friday when a report on an investigation into the sacking of the Public Safety Commissioner in the state of Alaska where Sarah Palin is governor. The report accused the Republican vice presidential nominee, Sarah Palin of abusing her powers.

The report published found that Palin, fired the state's public safety commissioner, Walt Monegan, partly because he refused to fire Palin's ex-brother-in-law, Mike Wooten, who was locked in a bitter custody battle with Palin's sister, Molly McCann.

But the report - commissioned by the Legislature and carried out by an independent investigator - also found that Palin was within her "constitutional and statutory authority" to dismiss Monegan.

Would this report affect the credibility of the McCain campaign? While the Obama campaign has not ceased on the report to attack the Republican candidate, it will definitely not help the case of the Republicans who are behind in the polls.

Obama Leads in Swing States, Old Voters Favour McCain

About three weeks to the November 4 presidential elections, Democratic candidate, Obama is leading his Republican opponent, McCain in almost all states that may decide the winner (swing states).

According to the Gallup Daily tracking poll conducted from October 7-9, Senator Obama leads John McCain in the state of Ohio by six percent. Some other polls even put Senator Obama at a double digit lead. In Florida which enabled President George W Bush to win the Presidency in 2000, Senator Obama is now leading his rival by three percent.

In Ohio and Florida, voters say they trust Senator Obama repair the economy. In both states, polls, find, the Democratic flag bearer now leads McCain in the women and youth votes while John McCain on the other hand leads Obama among older voters above 70 years and white working class voters.

In the state of Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia and North Carolina, Obama has a double digit lead in almost all national and local polls.

Comments

[Ted]

David Akana,
I guess you're addressing your concerns about this US 2008 presidential election to me and if that be the case, this is a clear-cut response. First, Obama has gotten to where he is right now not because he changed his skin color from black to white; instead, the more steps he takes forward, the blacker his skin color becomes. He has actually mobilized American voters who have assured him of a virtual victory on November 4th, but one thing he has to do is to turn young voters' registrations into votes, otherwise after November 4th, his supporters will point fingers at racial issues which i do not seem to see as any major issue in this presidential campaign and election.

[s.akamembulle]

Mr Akana,I strongly believe it is very remote to continue mentioning the race problem at this stage of the US. Presidentials. The race issue could have worked in the raise between Obama and Clinton.Clinton did every thing to sabotage Obama as a black but failed.Mccain also tried but equally met his doom. There is an end to everything.The race issue in US and the rest of the world will have its natural death on the 4th of November 2008. Americans have come to realise that it is time intellectualism prevails over race. that is why each and every one whether white,black or Indain American are all queuing behing Obama now.Current polls show he is already on 313 electorates while Mccain is in 158, whereas a candidate needs merely 270 electorates to be voted to power.Mccain himself knows there is no magic he can perform to turn the ties around within this remaining three weeks.That was the governors elections in 1982,we are now in 2008 on presidentials.
VIVA OBAMA

[espoir]

i dont believe that race would play a big row in the outcome of the elections into the white house.the prelimenaries for the normination of obama saw him beating a white democrate to clinch the the democratic nominee.
i think as Akana put it Americans are "racailly emancipated".

[UnitedstatesofAfrica]

Enough with this Obama claptrap....what about your own countries? IDIOTS!! Claiming what is not yours.

[Ted]

UnitedstatesofAfrica,
Are you sure these guys are not discussing matters about their own country? What is a country to you?

[Mbu.B]

"Barack is ready, but the big question is, are we ready for Barack Obama?"

Excerpt from Michelle Obama.

Ted,espoir and akame, it would be deadly wrong to play down the importance of vote along racial lines. Obama has energized lots of votes across all bases and especially the youth vote as you rightly put. But again the most lingering fear is will these people (whites)actually vote for a black man.
Michelle Obama's lines are painfully trying to depict these concerns without actually calling the cat by its real name. She even says more; "We want change but change is hard."
The election has taken all sorts of twists from foreign policy experience or inexperience, guilt by association and then currently the economy. This last dice seems to play fine for Obama.
Questioned on the possibility of an Obama blow out victory, given the present polls, top political supporters and opponents all alike don't sound a big YES note.

The other argument is, it's hard to see a possible McCain comeback in polls, but then keeping aside the right wing voters who are traditionally Repubs and will vote at all times the Republican candidates, the Independents are still the same whites who have long been favored to vote for McCain.
Given a change of scenario, say replace the black candidate with a Latino, you would be facing almost the same uncertainty. As the US demographics put the Latinos the majority in about 2050. There is this fear from whites that 'their country' is or will be taken over by people who do not look like them and who some seem to look yet as strangers.
This sums the fact that once you are not a white you will be always regarded and treated from a different light. Just as blacks overwhelmingly vote for Obama in the primaries and will do so on Nov 4th, simple reason being they can themselves identify with his race. So too will expect the whites to do for McCain except that we expect the whites to be more open-minded. And even more, who will the Latino vote favor especially in the battle ground states. I guess he's high up there in the polls too.

At the end of the day, the polls can say what they want, but the vote boils down more to intellect to a few key issues and one of them being RACE.
Again, make no mistake in thinking it is the most petty of issues. It is known to all Americans that whites without a college education will hardly support a black candidate. This were mostly Hilary's base and would be McCains. Meanwhile the educated whites are more open minded and choose their favorite candidates from a broader spectrum and mind you; race is still one of them. Obama finding himself at this juncture doesn't at all dispel this, it's one of the reasons why the campaign, supporters and critics are overly cautious to go near definite pronouncements.