Cameroon: An “Island of Peace” or a Mere Time Bomb? A Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Analysis of the Country

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Mbuli Rene

Regional and intra-state conflicts in Africa have become a new tendency in the post-Cold War period.  The Central African region has witnessed an uncountable number of intra-state conflicts, making it a hotbed of political tension and insecurity. Ranging from a myriad of political, economic and socio-cultural causes, these conflicts have led to mass killings and human movements within and even across state borders. Meanwhile conflict prevention and resolution are key objectives on the agenda of most African governments; their prioritisation within government actions does not match the commitments taken. Political power-struggle, struggles over economic resources and social or group exclusion appears to play very complex roles in these new forms of conflicts in the region.

Cameroon, being a State in the Central African region is not excluded from this tendency. Besides its description as ‘Africa in miniature’, Cameroon is also often said to be, an “island of peace”; one of the most peaceful countries in the continent and the most peaceful in the region. This sometimes justifies the high rate of refugee influx in the country, since it’s ‘seemingly peaceful’ nature makes it the first choice for most refugees fleeing from wars in their countries.  However, a critical analysis of this haven of peace, Cameroon, may transform this blinded perception into greater caution and ignite positive actions towards restoring and safeguarding genuine and durable peace in the country. From an analysis of past and recent political, economic and socio-cultural events occurring in the country and taking into consideration the tensed and complex atmosphere that prevails, one may be tempted to declare the existence of a latent conflict in Cameroon with possible escalation in the near future if the right policies, politics, reforms and corrective actions are not taken on time.

The principal objective of this paper is to provoke policy discussions and place preventive diplomacy or conflict prevention and peace building in Cameroon at a preferential position within the political agenda. The paper while establishing the nexus between Cameroon’s peace, risk factors and variables and a potential conflict escalation; projects the possible modes or trends of conflict occurrence and proposes some preventive measures to deal with it. It is hoped that the analysis will ignite specific institutional and policy suggestions from decision – makers that would help Cameroon and other peace facilitators in preventing or mitigating future conflicts such that power, ethnic or social differences and economic resources will stop being regarded as  pure negative factors that only cause conflicts,  but become positive factors for nation building.

Amongst the issues or indicators that have been used to analyse the risk trends are:

• The governance system of Cameroon which is marked by Paul Biya’s personalised rule. This form of system which is commanded more by the individual (Head of State) than by the state rules and regulations has tended to prioritise the safeguarding of the president’s power than the human security of Cameroonians. Hence, the ‘democratic dictatorship’ practices and complex patronage makes have power transition through the ballot boxes difficult ; thereby making the  gun option (violence ) being seen as the best power-changing  option by many opposition groups.

•  The next factor is the effects of unfulfilled promises made by the New Deal regime of Biya which over the years have aroused the anger and discontent, leading to a vote of “No Confidence” from left-out and affected groups such as the youths and the Anglophones. He promised a new political ethos through rigour, moralisation, and fight against favouritism, sectarianism, nepotism, tribalism and corruption; promote greater justice and liberty for Cameroon with new dynamics under the powerful term ‘New Deal’. These are the very characteristics of Biya’s regime 27 years after. Other opinions hold that although Ahmadou Ahidjo’s rule was “repressive”, Cameroon however witnessed greater development (1961-1982) than under the present regime.

• Moreover, the human security situation of Cameroonians from every indication, demonstrates that there is gross neglect in both the socio-economic as well as the personal security dimensions.

• The Anglophone problem has equally been analysed. The protracted problem of neglect of the needs and demands of minority groups in Cameroon is of particular interest.  The perennial Anglophone problem has been making headlines in the local and sometimes international media; although the ruling party and the regime have thrown the problem to irrelevance.   The Anglophone community in Cameroon has long been very critical of the governance system and management of the natural resources of the State in general and the resources found in the Anglophone regions in particular. They decried inter alia, the regime’s neglect in terms of development. This led to repeated attempts of secession from the Republic, sarcastically called by avant-gardes of the movement as la Republique (Francophone Cameroon).  Personal rule, patrimonialism, clientelism and electoral manipulation that characterises the regime has made democratic transition very difficult. Following the constitutional amendment, there is growing fear that Biya could possibly stand for re-election after 2010; period which marks the end of his present mandate. The question that lies at the bottom of this analysis is to foresee the reaction of the Anglophone community; whether they will continue to ensure suffering and pain or they will take their secession attempts to another dimension.

• Finally, perception as a conflict factor has been systematically scrutinised with a particular interest as well. Though the manner in which the different groups in Cameroon perceive each other may differ from the Hutu –Tutsi context in Rwanda; perceptions in Cameroon however should be looked at the level of three fundamental groups: Anglophones, Southerners and the Northerners. Only a proper analysis of this level of group perception in Cameroon will give us a clearer picture and understanding of the threats that lies ahead.  The problem of ethnicity in Cameroon should therefore be seen at the level of political power possession between the three main political regions (North, South and Anglophone regions) than at the tribe or ethnic group level.

In this analysis, some possible conflict trends can be pin-pointed with respect to the present political and socio-economic context. These are:

• Civil War (Asymmetric nature)
• Youth- led Revolutionary/Ideological Civil War
• Anglophone - led Identity/Secession Civil War; and
• Military-led Coup

In conclusion, the idea that relative peace exist in Cameroon is intuitively appealing and inspiring. Peace is being defiled on daily basis in Cameroon due to political greed and power mongering; meanwhile many are being dehumanized-tortured and /or abused for daring to raise a voice at the reigning injustice. These victims cannot be said to be living in peace despite the lack of physical war in the country.

Most Cameroonians live in a state of psychological (internal) conflict. The system of government in Cameroon marked by personalized rule, clientelism, patrimonialism, the carefree attitude of government officials with respect to state funds, mismanagement, corruption and impunity has led to growing discontent amongst the poor minority. Despite the massive wealth above and beneath Cameroon’s soil, health care, education, social security and employment are still a challenge to many. The youths have been left out of the decision-making mechanism and the feeling of frustration is increasing, exacerbated by high unemployment rate and abject poverty. The rest of the population particularly the minority Anglophones feel betrayed by the regime and its unfulfilled promises, especially that of balanced development. Thus it would be plausible for our policy makers and the regime in general to take greater caution in its administration.

If these corrective actions and more are not taken quickly to support Cameroon’s artificially-based peace, the perceptible changes that have been taking place underpinned by political, economic and social dysfunctions in the Biya regime may be translated in to a direct and open civil war that would leave behind cycles of repercussions.

NB: The full and complete version of this paper can be assessed by visiting my blog or by visiting Scribd.

Comments

[The Entrepreneur Newsonline Inc.]

...its like asking why an average Cameroonian youth who lacks food, will borrow money to celebrate his birthday....to feed 50 other persons....?

Rene...all these theories don't hold
for Cameroon....tell your teachers that...
Don't link political science theories with
cameroon's realities on the ground.....

......its like trying to explain in sociology
and economics why poor families in cameroon spend millions to bury the dead, some even repatriate their corpses from abroad worth millions.....or spend millions in organising marriages and feed the public...even feed strangers they do not know....yet theory holds that the Cameroonian lives on 2 dollars a day, paradoxically his charity is more that than of an average caucasian middle class native in London, Berlin, Sidney or New York.....

......that's just cameroon's empirical realities on the ground......it can not be explained by text book.....Cameroon is not theory......theories don't hold in Cameroon......let your imagination not deceive you.....

...e.g. ...what style of play do the Lions use? Theories in text books in coaching schools will not hold for Cameroon. They play Egypt different from Brazil, as differently they will against Germany or Tchad or US women's soccer team!......that randomness and stochastic behaviour permeates all fabric of national life.......

.....your write up/assignment miss an opportunity to unravel Cameroon's perculiarity from the established schools of thought......

[The Entrepreneur Newsonline Inc.]

...And your conclusion....
the peace in Cameroon is real...
...more than 18 million people live in Camerooon.....and are undertaking tasks that citizens in other parts of the socalled developed world do to make a living.....
..do not misconstrue the grunts of some big men,
perhaps in exile...or in Cameroon....as simmering tensions for a potential conflict...Your conclusion is your imagination....

[The Ngwa Man]

The topic of this article is a good one but the ideas in it were not well explained to clearly and completely land the topic. Never the less I commend you for bringing this topic out to the public domain for Cameroonians and others who love notre pays to think about and discuss.

The peace amongst Cameroonians is real but the discontent and unhappiness of the citizenry with the current political system and those who manage and implement this system is also real.

A couple of weeks ago Mr. Agbormbai and I were debating the contents of a new more truely democratic constitution. I was surprised to see/read a week later that in the National Assembly they are trying to push through a bill that would bring back the office of the vice-President. The theory is that external forces are putting pressure on the regime to bring back this office so as to maintain stability in the country in case God through whatever means expires the existance of the current head of state.

If it is true that external forces are putting pressure on the current regime to do this, why don't they also openly and secretively encourage better governance and strict adherence to true democratic principles? I think we know the answer to that question.

If the office of the vice president is created are we the citizens of Cameroon going to be charged with the opportunity of electing this person? Will the elections be fair? Or will he/she be appointed/selected by the current head of state?

As we all hopefully know our current constitution has a succession mechanism put in place. This is what the current constitution says on this matter:

(4) Where the office of President of the Republic becomes vacant as a result of death, resignation or permanent incapacity duly ascertained by the Constitutional Council, the polls for the election of the new President of the Republic must be held not less than 20 (twenty) days and not, more than 40 (forty)
days after the office becomes vacant.

(a) The President of the Senate shall as of right act as interim President of the Republic until the new President of the Republic is elected. Where the President of the Senate is unable to exercise these powers, the shall be exercised by his Vice, following the order of precedence.

(b) The interim President of the Republic - the President of the senate or his Vice - may neither amend the Constitution nor the composition of the Government. He may not organize a referendum or run for the office of President of the Republic.

In my opinion, what we have in the current constitution on this matter of succession does a lot more towards advancing the practice and process of democracy in Camer.

The reason I bring all this up under the topic Mr. Mbuli Rene has written can best be sumised by the following statement by Mr. Rene:

"perceptions in Cameroon however should be looked at the level of three fundamental groups: Anglophones, Southerners and the Northerners."

If we are to follow Mr. Rene's line of thought can we assume that there is a conspiracy by the present powers to keep a Northener from ascending to the Presidency through holding the post of President of the National Assembly, even though it would just be an interim presidency. The current President of the National Assembly is Cavaye Yeguie Djibril a Northener, who was elected to this post by fellow members of parliament including some opposition party MP's.

As The Entrepreneur Newsonline Inc. says, all this is theory. What happens in other African countries does not necesarily have to happen in Cameroon. What I wish for is that the ruling elite and politicians would set a better example and actually follow democratic principles so that those who come after them will also behave properly.

Look at what is happening in Guinea-Conakry. If their political elite were setting a better example then there would have been no need for the military to have stepped in to attempt to govern. When politicians do things long enough that erode the faith of the people at all levels of a societies structure in the rule of law, bad things can and will happen.

FREE CAMEROON!

[Dr A A Agbormbai]

Brilliant!

[manawar]

My dear,we don't talk about peace and all what in the constitution when the country is moving from better to worst. for the past years (30 years) there have always been changes in the constitution that we think are good one but do the governing body put them into practise?
what ever a vice president or not that is not going to change cameroon from the present situation.
The powers of the country in with one person (Biya) not different from a dictator. He take decision at will and changes the constitution at anytime to his favor and to the favor of his gang thieves in the name of government offical.

I think too much of this peace is taking the country backward.
there is no government worker who is not a CPDM and who is not under the control of Biya. If you want to go against him then you will be kicked out.
There too much dictatorship in Cameroon at this present generation. there is no democracy in Cameroon and everything written in papers or in constitution is not being practise because of the dictator (Biya) and his gang.
You guy only talk of peace, peace in the country, why is it not changing the country to better instead to worst.
I tell you Biya and all you group of people that you can fly to the highest level but let me asure you that you guys will land on your pellies.
you sit there and fly to Europe or anywhere you like, eat what you like. but you don't know what the present cameroonians in the country are going through.
The little money the country makes, is shared between you and you government officials and all is going ínto your private puckets.
The whole rolling regime and the government officials are make up of embezzeler and corrupter.
Can you compare the development of Cameroon from 1960 to 1982 with the development of cameroon from 1982 to the present date. I think only Biya and his government officials will say yes because there have developed by inriching themselves from the cameroon money and property.

[The Ngwa Man]

Manawar, after reading your post I have come to believe that you and I have similar views that agree with each other but I don't you know that we have the same views. I say this because of the statements in your first paragraph which I believe were directed towards.

Of course the constitution we currently have is not working though there are some parts in it that are good. Thats why I made the statements about if good examples were set by the the current ruling elite and political elite.

Let me explain what I mean by setting a good example by telling you a very true story about the effects of setting a bad example.

A 5 year old child ran away from home in the middle of the night. The childs family discovered he was gone and began to search for him. They eventually found him trying to drive a stolen car. When they asked the 5 year old boy why he was doing what he was doing he responded that he missed his dad who was in jail and that he was trying to do something that would get him taken to jail where he could be with his dad.

In a previous topic called, "The Psychology of Cameroonian Opposition Politics and Why it Might Fail yet Again," I had what I considered was a great discussion with Mr. Agbormbai about what should be part of the platform/manifesto of any serious political candidate or political party. Highlight, copy, and paste the link below in the address space above to find our discussion.

http://www.postnewsline.com/2009/11/the-psychology-of-cameroonian-opposition-politics-and-why-it-might-fail-yet-again.html#comments

The current constitution has some good parts but has others that are a detriment to the progress of the country and an impediment to democracy. The current constitution enables the current and future president to over look and over ride the national consensus.

It's like creating a game and giving the creator of the game 149 points, the authority to award himself points and stating that one of the rules is that one wins the game once they achieve 150 points and then you tell the creator he can play every game.

For those who don't understand that explanation then maybe you will understand this one. Its like flipping a two sided coin to decide who gets the ball first at the begining of a soccer match but while the coin is turning in the air one says to their opponent, "heads I win tails you lose."

I wonder how long it will take to enter into the national/grass roots consciousness that we need a new more democratic constitution through a National Convention which limits the powers of the president and basically makes it impossible for someone to make the nation and its treasury their personal property. I read a very insightful interview in The Post Newspaper with Prof. Tazoacha Asonganyi whom is suggesting such a National Convention. Maybe after Son Excellence wins the upcoming election we as a nation will actually come together to figure out a better way as Mr. Asonganyi and even Asafor have suggested.

[red flag]

cameroun , is a central african state,really
the question is which cameroon, since there are two cameroons, just like two congos and two guinea, french cameroun AKA CAMEROUN, IS IN central africa,look at the MAP. ie travelling from the west coast, atlantic sea.
southern cameroons clearly, bakassi included is in west africa. the divide is exactly at the mungo river, then you are entering central africa, soo to say cameroun is in central africa is assuming southern cameroons too is in central africa, this is false, and cameroun, paul biya and ahmadou ahijo, military occupation of southern cameroons makes the 1961 independnece vote for a federation between british southern cameroons and LA REPUblique du cameroun or french cameroun, NULL AND VOID, SOO southern cameroons is in west africa, while cameroun is in central africa, thats the truth.

[Ma Mary]

That is quite true. Southern Cameroonians are historically, meta-culturally and psychologically West Africans. Most of us have never met a Gabonese, a Central African or a Chadian, and when we do, it is like meeting a total stranger. Abuja or Accra are more congenial places than Yaounde or Brazzaville.

[The Ngwa Man]

When I originally read this topic I missed the NB at the end that directed us to the full article.

For those who have not read the full article I strongly suggest that you do so.

The synopsis of the article that was posted above on this site(up station mountain club) just barely wets one's appetite for the full article.

The full article was well thought out and well written. If things are to detioriorate in Camer what Mr. Mbuli Rene has written is one of the many write ups we will recall as prophetic.

Thank you citizen Mbuli Rene for such a great article.

[mbuli Rene]

Thank you The Ngwa Man and all others who read the article and dropped comments. Even if the truth is bitter sometimes, it must be spoken.