Cameroon: 2005 Census Results Finally Published - How Credible?

According to the government of Cameroon, the population of Cameroon is now officially 19.4 million (19,406,100) as of January 1, 2010. This figure is a projection derived from the Population & Housing Census of November 2005, and based on an estimated national population growth rate of 2.6% since then.

Given the important role that census figures play in national life, from the allocation of state finances to the of distribution social and other services such as hospitals, schools, roads, including the allocation of parliamentary seats, etc., it is no surprise that these results are already mired in controversy with some either questioning the accuracy of the projections for the last five years, or simply accusing the government of having manipulated the results with an eye on future elections...

Critics point out, for example, that the "opposition" NW province, which had a population of 1.7 million in 2005, is now projected to have increased by a mere 75,000 to about 1.8 million inhabitants, while the "pro-regime" North province with a population of 1.6 million in 2005 now has 2 million inhabitants - a startling increase of about 362,000 inhabitants - even more than that of the Littoral province, Cameroon's economic nerve center...). Government  officials have refuted these claims, pointing out that the projections were done by statisticians whose work has been validated by the Resident Representative of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). [Any statisticians here to clear the air on this one?]

1. Regional breakdown of national population according to 2005 census results and 2010 projections

Go to Scribbles from the Den for the detailed regional breakdown of census results.

Comments

[wantim]

This is what Augustine Kodock, the former Minister of Planning, Programming and Regional Development who organized the census had say about the recently released census results: "Ces chiffres sont faux." /"These results are false." Excerpt of interview in Le Jour newspaper below:

"Lorsque des chiffres sont proclamés cinq ans après une enquête, avec les mouvements transfrontaliers de populations, avec les naissances, les mutations d’une tranche d’âge à une autre, les autres variables comme la mortalité, la natalité, vous pensez que, quelles que soient les techniques utilisées pour pondérer les erreurs, on peut faire confiance à des résultats pareils ? En tout cas, moi, j’en doute. Ces chiffres sont faux. Ils devraient être plus importants que ceux déclarés."

http://tinyurl.com/y2jhy4j

[frank ngabe]

population increases with time and taking into consideration that the census was conducted since five years ago its an indication that e results are faulty

[Akon]

there is just nothing that come out of this govt that can be trusted. they think they are always smart. y were the results not release early enough its only now that elections are caming that biya wants to put his reging mechinary in place so that when he manupulates with the results again
he and his people will try to justify by saying look are the census results it shows this provinces had a greater pop thats y he started the shit of regions
what a fuck is really wrong with those pple

[Egha]

The census results are a strong indication to Biya intention to hang up to power come 2011.The most embarassing is the fact that the two Anglophones Provinces have witnessed a drop in their population growth rate with no corresponding explanation to this scandalous situation.One will not be suprise if this trend should continue there will be no Anglophones in Cameroon in the years to come.These results are not only politically motivated but remained unreliable as those under whom the census was conducted are contesting them.If these results do not reflect minister Koddock census then where are the figures from?Certainly some one has tampered with the results with the express support of those in authority.After all the impossible is not Cameroon.God safe us.

[Egha]

The hand writing is glaring on the wall.First the creation of the controversial ELECAM.Next changing the constitution giving an extended presidential mandate to Biya to run for 2011.Thirdly,not quite confident with ELECAM the Ministry of Terrotorial Administration is again brought in the manangement of the elections despites its mess in the past elections.Progressively,Biya releases the controversial census results after five unconventional years.The results of the census is an indicator as to how the rigging proper will be done.Teleguiding his zombies Biya is declared NATURAL candidte for 2011 presidetial elections.The stage is now set.My advice is for election to hold on a day that Inter Milan will be playing and release for us plenty of bottles of beer.Bravo Pou Pou