Cameroon Presidential Election: Opposition Coalitions Are Overrated...

By Dibussi Tande

1. If the 6 opposition parties that took part in the 1997 presidential election had formed a coalition, they would still  have been unable to unseat President  Biya with a mere 7.43% of total votes cast.
2. If all of the 15 opposition parties that took part in the 2004 presidential election had formed a coalition, they would still have been unable to unseat Biya with a mere 29.8% of total votes cast.
3. In 1997 only 1 of the 10 presidential candidates had more than 3% of votes cast.
4. In 2004 only 2 of the 16 candidates obtained more than 5% of votes.
5. In 2004 12 of the 16 candidates scored less than 1% of votes.
6. Of the 21 prospective candidates for the 2011 presidential elections not more than 5 can reasonably aspire to up to 5% of total votes cast.

In short, opposition coalitions are not as important in presidential elections as we tend to believe (1992 being the exception...). Having every political party go it alone may actually be better (in terms of clarifying the political landscape) than creating a coalition of disparate political parties, many of which are moles of the regime in power.
 
Candidates for the 2004 Presidential Elections

Comments

[Va Boy]

who gives a dammn. When Biya dies, there will be a tussle. I said, when, because although he likes to pretend that he would live forever, one of these mornings the people will wake up to be told that he is dead, and people will either run for cover or rejoice in the streets. Then the army that he has pampered will come out and massacre some people. Then people will rise in multiple points all over the territory and begin to beg Europe for help, thinking that they are Libyan rebels. Then France will send 10,000 troops to protect the "government" and to protect its interests. It will kill another 1000 people and the press will not report ti.

I say ignore the stupid meaningless election and prepare for doomsday.

[Rosa]

Don't agree. If there had been a coalition, some Cameroonians like myself would have actually started believing that maybe those opposition leaderas are more interested in the good of the people than in power.

[Gan Charles]

Thank you for your analysis. Now I have a shot when I file for my candidacy in the 2018 election.